According to Juniper Research, the cryptocurrency market is heading towards an implosion, and not an explosion. This is at odds with the majority of market participants, who believe that Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies are at a bottom and have only one direction to travel. There have been multiple bullish predictions on the price of BTC and the future of the industry as the whole, though thus far in 2018 these have yet to materialize. Even institutional investors now have a positive outlook on the market.
5-Year Juniper Research report
Juniper released the research titled ‘The future of Cryptocurrency; Bitcoin & Altcoin Trends & Challenges 2018-2023’ on the 9th of October for a hefty sum of GBP 1250. Juniper Research is an established financial research group that has lately focused their attention on the cryptocurrency market. While most research and individual market participants would disagree with the conclusions from Juniper Research, it is very much in line with mainstream economists and political figures.
The research undertaken is quite comprehensive and looks at a wide variety of factors affecting the price including social uptake, regulatory and legal hurdles, altcoins, large financial institutions, political statements, law enforcement, blockchain forking, technical capabilities, and the prior evolution of the cryptocurrency market. Juniper Research is very bearish on the valuation of BTC, the symbolic figurehead of the entire industry which nearly all coins have a heavy positive correlation with –
“In short, given our concerns around both the innate valuation of Bitcoin, and of the operating practices of many exchanges, we feel that the industry is on the brink of an implosion.”
Mistaken assumptions and an unjustified bearish outlook?
One reason cited for the bearish outlook is that transaction volume has declined throughout 2018, as well as a worsening geopolitical landscape such as Brexit and the China-US trade wars. However, the latter is usually cited as events that would strengthen BTC, as a weakening of mainstream fiat currencies will encourage people to seek decentralized options without political or national ties which lead to the same crises.
Additionally, the decline in transaction volume consists primarily of those who are only interested in profit taking. Bitcoin, in particular, has a strong core of people who are using it as a store of value and a hedge against financial collapse, and also as a daily means of exchange where possible. In other words, the trend is unlikely to continue due to a strong foundation of firm believers in the decentralization movement.
The Juniper Research findings are at odds with most other reports, though research in the area has varied wildly. According to research from Satis Investment Group, within 5 years XMR will have gained 42,000% (USD 18,000) and BTC will have gained 1,900% (USD 96,000). On the other hand, XRP, BCH, EOS, XLM, and ADA are expected to go nearly to zero within one year. Such is the divergence of opinion within research analysis on a new and volatile industry. Given the track record of research groups and analysis firms, it may be a good bet to hold a wide variety of cryptocurrencies and diversify into a field that is going to grow, though its price could be volatile. Time and diversity have always won in any emerging sector of the economy.
Digital Nomad with an interest in Zen and Blockchain technology.
Law graduate with 3 years experience as a consultant in the capital markets industry and 4 years experience freelancing on UpWork as a Creative Writer.