There seems to be a consensus in the cryptocurrency trading community that the bitcoin market price is indeed going to experience a price shift heading into Q4, 2018. While the direction might be disputed, trading indicators point towards a move.
Bitcoin market price move indicators
September marked bitcoin’s tightest trading quarter since 2016. It started the month at around USD 7,000 and ended at USD 6,600. Despite a rise in April, BTC has been largely trading at around USD 7,000 from March to September.
The Bitcoin market price has a long history of breakouts after 3-4 months of consolidation periods. And it historically travels upwards in the final quarter. Most of the defining bitcoin price movements have taken place in this period. Traders are looking out for signs on which way that the coin is going to travel, but are confident that it is soon going to make a break out of the 6-7K range.
The typical trading indicators that traders will look for on a daily basis include the Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD), the Chaikin Money Flow (CHF) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). While there is no clear method of understanding which direction and how far an asset will travel, especially in the cryptocurrency market, these indicators can be very helpful.
Many notable investors such as Mike Novogratz and Tom Lee made high predictions with BTC at USD 25,000 by the end of 2018 or before. The trend is definitely against these forecasts, but if the price of BTC does spike, it could well be in the coming months.
What if BTC continues its consolidation?
There was much hype and glamor surrounding the peak of bitcoin nearing USD 20,000 in Mid December 2017. It encouraged additional investment to the market and brought the idea of cryptocurrency into mainstream awareness.
However, if the market price was to stay within its current range (between USD 6,000 and USD 7,000) for a prolonged period, then it could be an indication of stability. The most commonly cited reason to veer clear of BTC is that the price is volatile. Stability could be an indication of a mature market and could entice certain investors. It will also encourage businesses to accept the cryptocurrency for goods and services.
And instead of people simply looking for profit, it could serve its two primary use cases – as a hedge against fiat currencies, and as a decentralized means of exchange for goods and services. It is possible that we have seen the end of extreme BTC volatility, short of a major economic collapse, and that it has stabilized. This may be problematic for the profit-takers but is great news for the overall industry.
Digital Nomad with an interest in Zen and Blockchain technology.
Law graduate with 3 years experience as a consultant in the capital markets industry and 4 years experience freelancing on UpWork as a Creative Writer.